Humanity Odds

Name: Estimated probability of human extinction by 2100
Creator: VectorAI Beratung & Vertrieb

The world's risks, measured. Daily.

Get the app

The daily index and its eight scenarios on your phone, with the monthly podcast and the preparedness basics. Free download.

Pro More depth. One purchase. All Pro features

Estimated probability of human extinction by 2100

3.77%

about 1 in 27 · Updated Nov 9, 2026, 18:28 UTC

24 h+0.0086 pp 7 days+0.022 pp

Last 90 days

Scenarios

Scenario	Probability 7 days	1 in
AI Takeover	3.05% ▼ −0.025 pp	33
Engineered Pandemic	0.35% ▲ +0.0038 pp	283
Nuclear War	0.25% ▲ +0.042 pp	396
Climate Collapse	0.13% ▲ +0.0033 pp	781
Supervolcano	0.0055% ▲ +0.00000054 pp	18,104
Hostile Alien ContactSPECULATIVE	0.00010% ▼ −0.0000000059 pp	999,860
Asteroid / Comet Impact	0.000052% ▼ −0.000000061 pp	1,939,462
Zombie Outbreak (Neuro-Pathogen)SPECULATIVE	0.000010% ▲ +0.000000026 pp	9,818,168

Pro

Humanity Odds Pro: More depth. One purchase.

All numbers stay free. Pro adds the full history, the real-time feed and alerts, with a single purchase and no subscription.

Full history of every scenario; compare three and export CSV or images
Real-time Threat Feed with the full archive, filters and how each item was rated
The weekly Deep Dive: one scenario explained, with sources, also read aloud
Preparedness guides: a fictional exercise and a sourced checklist per scenario, also offline

All Pro features

Why it moved

Nuclear War +0.0027 pp Nov 8, 2026

Iran issued public guidance to citizens on surviving a nuclear strike, including advice on radioactive fallout, amid heightened tensions with the United States and Israel. Officials also reiterated that any nuclear attack would be met with a response, underscoring deterrence concerns.
- Iran has issued nuclear attack survival guidance to its population amid concerns over potential US military strikes. moneycontrol.com
- The US military offers $20 million for information about Iran's nuclear program activities. economictimes.indiatimes.com
Climate Collapse +0.0013 pp Oct 29, 2026

New reports point to accelerating global warming: the warming rate has nearly doubled since 2010, seven climate indicators hit record levels, and greenhouse gas concentrations reached new highs in 2025. The WMO projects warming could reach 2.8°C, raising concerns about wildfire feedback loops.
- A major report finds the rate of global warming has nearly doubled since 2010, indicating accelerating climate change. sciencealert.com
AI Takeover −0.034 pp Oct 25, 2026

OpenAI resumed training advanced AI systems after a security overhaul, adding measures such as network isolation and air-gapped infrastructure, while also disclosing a vulnerability in widely used software. These steps point to improved safety practices around frontier AI development.
- OpenAI resumes advanced AI training following a security overhaul and discloses a vulnerability in widely deployed software. economictimes.indiatimes.com
- The UK announced additional funding to strengthen safeguards against artificial intelligence risks and potential hazards. english.aawsat.com

Summaries are AI-generated; each links to its source.

Pro The complete archive of why the index moved All Pro features

The weekly Deep Dive

Nov 3 – Nov 9, 2026 · Nuclear War

Nuclear War Estimate Edges Up Amid US-Iran Tensions

The Nuclear War scenario moved this week. The model-based estimate rose by a few hundredths of a point, from 0.22 percent on November 3 to 0.25 percent on November 9, or about one in 396. As the app explained the move, the main driver was a cluster of reports that U.S. officials had discussed possible nuclear strikes against Iran, set against repeated statements about preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and hints at further military action.

Written by AI (Claude) from the week's evidence only and checked by a human before publishing.

Pro Read the whole analysis with Pro All Pro features

About this index

Humanity Odds estimates the probability that humanity goes extinct by 2100, for eight scenarios from AI to asteroids, and updates it every day.

Each scenario starts from published expert forecasts. An AI model classifies the day's news, and the index moves only within fixed limits. Every number links to its sources.

How the index is made · Data: the latest snapshot (JSON)

Follow Humanity Odds: YouTube · X

Contact us

Published by VectorAI Beratung & Vertrieb, Christian Berger, Gera, Germany.
Email: christian.berger@vectorai-services.de · Phone: +49 1551 0153054
All contact details