What is the current estimate for Nuclear War?

0.21%, about 1 in 472, for human extinction or an unrecoverable collapse by 2100 through this scenario. Last updated Oct 10, 2026.

Where does the number come from?

It starts from published expert forecasts, blended as the geometric mean of their odds. A daily news layer can move it, at most by a factor of two, and daily values are smoothed.

How often does it change?

Every day at 06:00 UTC, and sooner after a major story. Each move comes with the stories behind it.

Is this a prediction?

Humanity Odds is a model-based estimate combining published expert forecasts with automated news analysis. It is not a prediction and not scientific advice. Summaries are AI-generated.

All scenarios

Nuclear War

A large-scale nuclear exchange and its aftermath: nuclear winter, famine and collapse.

Estimated probability of extinction or unrecoverable collapse by 2100

0.21%

about 1 in 472 · Updated Oct 10, 2026, 12:45 UTC

24 h+0.003 pp 7 days+0.023 pp

Last 7 days

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Measured now

Last detected nuclear test

3,324 days ago

Sep 3, 2017, North Korea

As of Oct 10, 2026, 10:15 UTC

Seismic detections only; the catalogue is not complete.

Source: U.S. Geological Survey

The index is an estimate; these are measurements. Each reading is shown as its source publishes it, with its time and a link. The readings do not move the index. Humanity Odds is not affiliated with or endorsed by these sources.

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Why it moved

+0.003 pp Oct 10, 2026

Statements on Iran's nuclear program were mixed, with officials claiming its nuclear threat was ended while others warned Iran could target US cities. Lithuania is also considering dropping its constitutional ban on nuclear weapons.
- Trump announces he will not authorize military strikes on Iran before 2026 midterms and reiterates commitment to preventing Iran's nuclear weapons development. economictimes.indiatimes.com
- Lithuania considers removing its constitutional prohibition on nuclear weapons, potentially enabling future nuclear arsenal development. lrt.lt

Summaries are AI-generated; each links to its source.

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Preparedness guides

Fictional exercise

Nuclear Conflict: Shelter, Fallout and Staying Informed

In this exercise, a nuclear exchange takes place between distant states, and your region is not struck. What arrives instead are official warnings, the possibility of fallout on the wind, and weeks of strained supplies.

A fictional exercise with general information, not an instruction. In an emergency, the instructions of the authorities and emergency services come first. Written by AI (Claude) from official guidance and checked by a human; the pictures are AI-generated.

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The baseline

The starting value blends published expert forecasts as the geometric mean of their odds. News can move it within a fixed range.

Questions and answers

What is the current estimate for Nuclear War?: 0.21%, about 1 in 472, for human extinction or an unrecoverable collapse by 2100 through this scenario. Last updated Oct 10, 2026.
Where does the number come from?: It starts from published expert forecasts, blended as the geometric mean of their odds. A daily news layer can move it, at most by a factor of two, and daily values are smoothed.
How often does it change?: Every day at 06:00 UTC, and sooner after a major story. Each move comes with the stories behind it.
Is this a prediction?: Humanity Odds is a model-based estimate combining published expert forecasts with automated news analysis. It is not a prediction and not scientific advice. Summaries are AI-generated.

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