P(doom) leaderboard
Publicly stated estimates of the probability of human extinction or doom by named people. Definitions and time frames differ; every entry links to its source. Curated, not inferred.
- Roman Yampolskiy 99.9% Chance that AI leads to human extinction within the next hundred years, on the Lex Fridman Podcast. Source
- Eliezer Yudkowsky above 95% Co-author of 'If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies'; his P(doom) as reported by Fast Company. Source
- Max Tegmark above 90% Physicist and AI researcher; stated his P(doom) in a post on X. Source
- Connor Leahy 90% or more CEO of the AI safety company Conjecture; his probability of human extinction from AGI, on the Future of Life Institute podcast. Source
- David Duvenaud 85% Machine learning professor and former Anthropic safety researcher; his P(doom) in an interview on Doom Debates. Source
- Andrew Critch 85% AI safety researcher; his probability of human extinction from AI, stated in a debate on Doom Debates. Source
- Zvi Mowshowitz 70% Writer on AI; his P(doom) on The Cognitive Revolution podcast. Source
- Daniel Kokotajlo 70% Chance that advanced AI destroys or catastrophically harms humanity, in an interview with The New York Times; he later spoke of 70–80%. Source
- Geoffrey Miller 50% Evolutionary psychologist who worked on neural networks in the 1990s; his P(doom) on Doom Debates. Source
- Emad Mostaque 50% Co-founder of Stability AI; stated his P(doom) in a post on X. Source
The top 10 by stated value. The full list with filters and the expert timeline are in the app.
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