What is the current estimate for Zombie Outbreak (Neuro-Pathogen)?

0.000010%, about 1 in 9,873,813, for human extinction or an unrecoverable collapse by 2100 through this scenario. Last updated Oct 10, 2026.

Where does the number come from?

It starts from an editorial estimate, because no published forecasts exist for this speculative scenario. Reports count as signals, not as evidence, and can move it at most by a factor of two.

How often does it change?

Every day at 06:00 UTC, and sooner after a major story. Each move comes with the stories behind it.

Is this a prediction?

Humanity Odds is a model-based estimate combining published expert forecasts with automated news analysis. It is not a prediction and not scientific advice. Summaries are AI-generated.

All scenarios

Zombie Outbreak (Neuro-Pathogen)SPECULATIVE

A pathogen that attacks the nervous system and changes behavior at mass scale. Prion diseases and rabies-like or neurotropic outbreaks count as signals.

Estimated probability of extinction or unrecoverable collapse by 2100

0.000010%

about 1 in 9,873,813 · Updated Oct 10, 2026, 12:45 UTC

24 h−0.0000000039 pp 7 days+0.000000036 pp

Last 7 days

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Measured now

Human rabies, US

No cases this year

Measured Oct 3, 2026 · preliminary

Source: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (NNDSS)

The index is an estimate; these are measurements. Each reading is shown as its source publishes it, with its time and a link. The readings do not move the index. Humanity Odds is not affiliated with or endorsed by these sources.

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Preparedness guides

Fictional exercise

Neuro-Pathogen Exercise: Preparing Calmly at Home

Imagine that a pathogen affecting the nervous system begins to spread in several regions, and health authorities announce protective measures and ask people to stay home where possible. This is a fictional exercise: the people who fall ill are patients who need care and treatment, and your household's job is simply to be prepared, informed and helpful.

A fictional exercise with general information, not an instruction. In an emergency, the instructions of the authorities and emergency services come first. Written by AI (Claude) from official guidance and checked by a human; the pictures are AI-generated.

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The baseline

Speculative scenarios start from an editorial estimate, because no published forecasts exist for them. Reports count as signals, not as evidence.

Questions and answers

What is the current estimate for Zombie Outbreak (Neuro-Pathogen)?: 0.000010%, about 1 in 9,873,813, for human extinction or an unrecoverable collapse by 2100 through this scenario. Last updated Oct 10, 2026.
Where does the number come from?: It starts from an editorial estimate, because no published forecasts exist for this speculative scenario. Reports count as signals, not as evidence, and can move it at most by a factor of two.
How often does it change?: Every day at 06:00 UTC, and sooner after a major story. Each move comes with the stories behind it.
Is this a prediction?: Humanity Odds is a model-based estimate combining published expert forecasts with automated news analysis. It is not a prediction and not scientific advice. Summaries are AI-generated.

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