What is the current estimate for Asteroid / Comet Impact?

0.000054%, about 1 in 1,838,448, for human extinction or an unrecoverable collapse by 2100 through this scenario. Last updated Oct 10, 2026.

Where does the number come from?

It starts from published expert forecasts, blended as the geometric mean of their odds. A daily news layer can move it, at most by a factor of two, and daily values are smoothed.

How often does it change?

Every day at 06:00 UTC, and sooner after a major story. Each move comes with the stories behind it.

Is this a prediction?

Humanity Odds is a model-based estimate combining published expert forecasts with automated news analysis. It is not a prediction and not scientific advice. Summaries are AI-generated.

All scenarios

Asteroid / Comet Impact

The impact of an asteroid or comet large enough to cause a global catastrophe, roughly one kilometer across or more.

Estimated probability of extinction or unrecoverable collapse by 2100

0.000054%

about 1 in 1,838,448 · Updated Oct 10, 2026, 12:45 UTC

24 h−0.000000059 pp 7 days−0.00000043 pp

Last 7 days

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Measured now

Highest Torino rating

Torino 0

As of Oct 10, 2026, 08:29 UTC

Source: NASA/JPL CNEOS Sentry

The index is an estimate; these are measurements. Each reading is shown as its source publishes it, with its time and a link. The readings do not move the index. Humanity Odds is not affiliated with or endorsed by these sources.

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Preparedness guides

Fictional exercise

Asteroid Impact With Weeks of Warning: An Exercise

Imagine astronomers announce that a newly found asteroid will strike Earth in a few weeks, most likely in a remote stretch of ocean. Authorities warn coastlines and regions near the path, and the dust lifted into the atmosphere cools the seasons that follow.

A fictional exercise with general information, not an instruction. In an emergency, the instructions of the authorities and emergency services come first. Written by AI (Claude) from official guidance and checked by a human; the pictures are AI-generated.

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The baseline

The starting value blends published expert forecasts as the geometric mean of their odds. News can move it within a fixed range.

Toby Ord, The Precipice (2020), Table 6.1: existential catastrophe within the next 100 years 0.00010% by ~2120
XPT (Forecasting Research Institute, 2023), Table 3: superforecaster median (non-anthropogenic 0.0043%), extinction by 2100 0.000043% by 2100
XPT (Forecasting Research Institute, 2023), Table 3: expert median (non-anthropogenic 0.004%), extinction by 2100 0.000040% by 2100

Questions and answers

What is the current estimate for Asteroid / Comet Impact?: 0.000054%, about 1 in 1,838,448, for human extinction or an unrecoverable collapse by 2100 through this scenario. Last updated Oct 10, 2026.
Where does the number come from?: It starts from published expert forecasts, blended as the geometric mean of their odds. A daily news layer can move it, at most by a factor of two, and daily values are smoothed.
How often does it change?: Every day at 06:00 UTC, and sooner after a major story. Each move comes with the stories behind it.
Is this a prediction?: Humanity Odds is a model-based estimate combining published expert forecasts with automated news analysis. It is not a prediction and not scientific advice. Summaries are AI-generated.

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