What is the current estimate for Climate Collapse?

0.10%, about 1 in 963, for human extinction or an unrecoverable collapse by 2100 through this scenario. Last updated Oct 10, 2026.

Where does the number come from?

It starts from published expert forecasts, blended as the geometric mean of their odds. A daily news layer can move it, at most by a factor of two, and daily values are smoothed.

How often does it change?

Every day at 06:00 UTC, and sooner after a major story. Each move comes with the stories behind it.

Is this a prediction?

Humanity Odds is a model-based estimate combining published expert forecasts with automated news analysis. It is not a prediction and not scientific advice. Summaries are AI-generated.

All scenarios

Climate Collapse

Extreme climate change, such as runaway warming or cascading tipping points, causing an unrecoverable collapse of civilization.

Estimated probability of extinction or unrecoverable collapse by 2100

0.10%

about 1 in 963 · Updated Oct 10, 2026, 12:45 UTC

24 h−0.00021 pp 7 days+0.0018 pp

Last 7 days

Pro Full history of every scenario; compare three and export CSV or images All Pro features

Measured now

Global air temperature

+0.91 °C against 1991–2020

Daily mean 15.66 °C

Measured Oct 8, 2026 · preliminary

Source: C3S/ECMWF, Copernicus Climate Pulse (ERA5)

The index is an estimate; these are measurements. Each reading is shown as its source publishes it, with its time and a link. The readings do not move the index. Humanity Odds is not affiliated with or endorsed by these sources.

Pro The other readings of this scenario with Pro All Pro features

Preparedness guides

Fictional exercise

Heat, Drought and Floods: Preparing for a Hard Year

In this exercise, several climate tipping points cascade and your region lives through a summer of record heat, drought and wildfire smoke, followed in autumn by severe floods. Supplies are strained, and ordinary households have to manage a few difficult weeks with what they have.

A fictional exercise with general information, not an instruction. In an emergency, the instructions of the authorities and emergency services come first. Written by AI (Claude) from official guidance and checked by a human; the pictures are AI-generated.

Pro Read the exercise and the checklist with Pro All Pro features

The baseline

The starting value blends published expert forecasts as the geometric mean of their odds. News can move it within a fixed range.

Toby Ord, The Precipice (2020), Table 6.1: existential catastrophe within the next 100 years 0.10% by ~2120

Questions and answers

What is the current estimate for Climate Collapse?: 0.10%, about 1 in 963, for human extinction or an unrecoverable collapse by 2100 through this scenario. Last updated Oct 10, 2026.
Where does the number come from?: It starts from published expert forecasts, blended as the geometric mean of their odds. A daily news layer can move it, at most by a factor of two, and daily values are smoothed.
How often does it change?: Every day at 06:00 UTC, and sooner after a major story. Each move comes with the stories behind it.
Is this a prediction?: Humanity Odds is a model-based estimate combining published expert forecasts with automated news analysis. It is not a prediction and not scientific advice. Summaries are AI-generated.

Get the app

The daily index and its eight scenarios on your phone, with the monthly podcast and the preparedness basics. Free download.

iPhone and iPad: coming soon to the App Store

Pro More depth. One purchase. All Pro features