What is the current estimate for Supervolcano?

0.0055%, about 1 in 18,119, for human extinction or an unrecoverable collapse by 2100 through this scenario. Last updated Oct 10, 2026.

Where does the number come from?

It starts from published expert forecasts, blended as the geometric mean of their odds. A daily news layer can move it, at most by a factor of two, and daily values are smoothed.

How often does it change?

Every day at 06:00 UTC, and sooner after a major story. Each move comes with the stories behind it.

Is this a prediction?

Humanity Odds is a model-based estimate combining published expert forecasts with automated news analysis. It is not a prediction and not scientific advice. Summaries are AI-generated.

All scenarios

Supervolcano

A super-eruption (VEI 7 to 8) causing a volcanic winter and a global collapse.

Estimated probability of extinction or unrecoverable collapse by 2100

0.0055%

about 1 in 18,119 · Updated Oct 10, 2026, 12:45 UTC

24 h+0.00000029 pp 7 days+0.0000023 pp

Last 7 days

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Measured now

Yellowstone alert level

Normal · aviation code green

As of Oct 10, 2026, 19:35 UTC

Source: U.S. Geological Survey

The index is an estimate; these are measurements. Each reading is shown as its source publishes it, with its time and a link. The readings do not move the index. Humanity Odds is not affiliated with or endorsed by these sources.

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Preparedness guides

Fictional exercise

Ash on the Horizon: Getting Ready for a Long, Dim Season

In this exercise, a super-eruption far from your region veils the sky for months, dusting some areas with fine ash and straining harvests and supply chains worldwide. You follow one household through the first hours, days, weeks and month as the light slowly changes.

A fictional exercise with general information, not an instruction. In an emergency, the instructions of the authorities and emergency services come first. Written by AI (Claude) from official guidance and checked by a human; the pictures are AI-generated.

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The baseline

The starting value blends published expert forecasts as the geometric mean of their odds. News can move it within a fixed range.

Questions and answers

What is the current estimate for Supervolcano?: 0.0055%, about 1 in 18,119, for human extinction or an unrecoverable collapse by 2100 through this scenario. Last updated Oct 10, 2026.
Where does the number come from?: It starts from published expert forecasts, blended as the geometric mean of their odds. A daily news layer can move it, at most by a factor of two, and daily values are smoothed.
How often does it change?: Every day at 06:00 UTC, and sooner after a major story. Each move comes with the stories behind it.
Is this a prediction?: Humanity Odds is a model-based estimate combining published expert forecasts with automated news analysis. It is not a prediction and not scientific advice. Summaries are AI-generated.

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