What is the current estimate for Engineered Pandemic?

0.34%, about 1 in 294, for human extinction or an unrecoverable collapse by 2100 through this scenario. Last updated Oct 10, 2026.

Where does the number come from?

It starts from published expert forecasts, blended as the geometric mean of their odds. A daily news layer can move it, at most by a factor of two, and daily values are smoothed.

How often does it change?

Every day at 06:00 UTC, and sooner after a major story. Each move comes with the stories behind it.

Is this a prediction?

Humanity Odds is a model-based estimate combining published expert forecasts with automated news analysis. It is not a prediction and not scientific advice. Summaries are AI-generated.

All scenarios

Engineered Pandemic

A deliberately engineered or enhanced pathogen, from a bioweapon to gain-of-function research or a lab accident, causing a pandemic on a scale that ends civilization.

Estimated probability of extinction or unrecoverable collapse by 2100

0.34%

about 1 in 294 · Updated Oct 10, 2026, 12:45 UTC

24 h+0.0034 pp 7 days+0.011 pp

Last 7 days

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Measured now

Emergency visits for respiratory illness, US

COVID-19 0.5% · flu 0.6% · RSV 0.1%

Share of all emergency department visits, last week

Measured Oct 3, 2026

Source: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, available free at cdc.gov

The index is an estimate; these are measurements. Each reading is shown as its source publishes it, with its time and a link. The readings do not move the index. Humanity Odds is not affiliated with or endorsed by these sources.

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Why it moved

+0.0034 pp Oct 10, 2026

A fatal incident at a Russian laboratory linked to plague research has raised concerns about transparency and possible bioweapon work, even as experts say a wider outbreak remains unlikely. Australia has moved to strengthen pandemic preparedness in response.
- Russia denies reports of a plague outbreak and rejects finding pathogens, while Trump offers assistance to address the situation. hindustantimes.com
- A former White House biosecurity official outlines concerning developments at the intersection of AI and biosecurity requiring continued monitoring. fortune.com
- USDA reports increased H5N1 avian influenza detection on poultry farms, raising zoonotic spillover concerns. cidrap.umn.edu

Summaries are AI-generated; each links to its source.

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Preparedness guides

Fictional exercise

Engineered Pandemic: A Household Preparedness Exercise

In this exercise, a newly engineered pathogen spreads between countries and health authorities announce protective measures. You follow one household of three through the first hours, days, weeks and month of the outbreak.

A fictional exercise with general information, not an instruction. In an emergency, the instructions of the authorities and emergency services come first. Written by AI (Claude) from official guidance and checked by a human; the pictures are AI-generated.

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The baseline

The starting value blends published expert forecasts as the geometric mean of their odds. News can move it within a fixed range.

Questions and answers

What is the current estimate for Engineered Pandemic?: 0.34%, about 1 in 294, for human extinction or an unrecoverable collapse by 2100 through this scenario. Last updated Oct 10, 2026.
Where does the number come from?: It starts from published expert forecasts, blended as the geometric mean of their odds. A daily news layer can move it, at most by a factor of two, and daily values are smoothed.
How often does it change?: Every day at 06:00 UTC, and sooner after a major story. Each move comes with the stories behind it.
Is this a prediction?: Humanity Odds is a model-based estimate combining published expert forecasts with automated news analysis. It is not a prediction and not scientific advice. Summaries are AI-generated.

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