What is the current estimate for Hostile Alien Contact?

0.00010%, about 1 in 999,400, for human extinction or an unrecoverable collapse by 2100 through this scenario. Last updated Oct 10, 2026.

Where does the number come from?

It starts from an editorial estimate, because no published forecasts exist for this speculative scenario. Reports count as signals, not as evidence, and can move it at most by a factor of two.

How often does it change?

Every day at 06:00 UTC, and sooner after a major story. Each move comes with the stories behind it.

Is this a prediction?

Humanity Odds is a model-based estimate combining published expert forecasts with automated news analysis. It is not a prediction and not scientific advice. Summaries are AI-generated.

All scenarios

Hostile Alien ContactSPECULATIVE

Hostile contact with a non-human intelligence. Official disclosures, UAP reports and hearings count as signals, not as evidence of danger.

Estimated probability of extinction or unrecoverable collapse by 2100

0.00010%

about 1 in 999,400 · Updated Oct 10, 2026, 12:45 UTC

24 h−0.0000000019 pp 7 days+0.0000000064 pp

Last 7 days

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Measured now

Confirmed exoplanets

6,445 planets

As of Oct 10, 2026, 08:51 UTC

Context, not a sign of contact.

Source: NASA Exoplanet Archive

The index is an estimate; these are measurements. Each reading is shown as its source publishes it, with its time and a link. The readings do not move the index. Humanity Odds is not affiliated with or endorsed by these sources.

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Preparedness guides

Fictional exercise

If a Signal Arrives: Keeping Steady When Rumors Travel Fast

In this exercise, an international observatory network announces a repeating signal from a non-human intelligence on a course toward Earth, and states plainly that its intentions are unknown. Nothing has happened in the sky above your street, but everything is happening in your feeds, your stores and your conversations.

A fictional exercise with general information, not an instruction. In an emergency, the instructions of the authorities and emergency services come first. Written by AI (Claude) from official guidance and checked by a human; the pictures are AI-generated.

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The baseline

Speculative scenarios start from an editorial estimate, because no published forecasts exist for them. Reports count as signals, not as evidence.

Questions and answers

What is the current estimate for Hostile Alien Contact?: 0.00010%, about 1 in 999,400, for human extinction or an unrecoverable collapse by 2100 through this scenario. Last updated Oct 10, 2026.
Where does the number come from?: It starts from an editorial estimate, because no published forecasts exist for this speculative scenario. Reports count as signals, not as evidence, and can move it at most by a factor of two.
How often does it change?: Every day at 06:00 UTC, and sooner after a major story. Each move comes with the stories behind it.
Is this a prediction?: Humanity Odds is a model-based estimate combining published expert forecasts with automated news analysis. It is not a prediction and not scientific advice. Summaries are AI-generated.

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